The Death Cross Screams ‘Sell Now!’ Is the $86K Bitcoin Peak a Trap?

On April 6, Bitcoin flashed a major warning signal — the dreaded death cross. This bearish technical pattern appears when the 50-day moving average (MA) dips below the 200-day MA on the daily chart. It’s a move that has historically hinted at trend reversals and triggered extended periods of downside. For Bitcoin, that might mean the $86K high was a trap.

The timing couldn’t be worse. Global markets are shaky amid rising geopolitical tensions and renewed fears of a tariff war. Equity volatility is spiking, and investor sentiment is on edge. For many traders, this death cross could mark the final nail in the coffin for hopes of a near-term Bitcoin breakout.

Yet not everyone is convinced the bull run is over.

Bitcoin Death Crosses: A Look at the Past

By definition, a death cross signals the end of bullish momentum. When the short-term 50-day MA slips below the long-term 200-day MA, it suggests recent price action is deteriorating against the broader trend. Its bullish counterpart, the golden cross, occurs when the 50-day MA climbs above the 200-day — often sparking optimism and rallies.

Bitcoin has now recorded 11 death crosses since inception. Each tells a different story. While every bear market has featured a death cross, not all death crosses have led to bear markets. That nuance is key.

Historically, there are two kinds of death crosses:

Bear market crosses – These occurred during brutal downtrends in 2014–2015, 2018, and 2022. Each lasted 9 to 13 months, with losses of 55% to 68%.
Non-bearish crosses – These were short-lived, lasting 1.5 to 3.5 months with mild pullbacks of up to 27%. Some even marked local bottoms and preceded fresh rallies.

So, what kind of death cross are we facing now?

Bear Market or Bear Trap?

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, we may already be in bear territory. His analysis suggests this death cross could lead to 6 to 12 more months of downward pressure.

One of his key metrics is the gap between Bitcoin’s market cap and realised cap (the average cost basis of all holders). If realised cap is growing while market cap falls or stagnates, it indicates capital inflow without price movement — a textbook bearish indicator.

“Sell pressure could ease,” says Ki, “but real reversals usually take at least six months. A quick bounce is unlikely.”

Not Everyone is Bearish

Some analysts see this death cross differently — not as a warning, but as a buying opportunity.

Crypto analyst Mister Crypto believes the current setup is a trap for late bears. He shared a chart of previous death crosses that led to unexpected rallies, claiming, “This will be the most hated rally of 2025!”

James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, agrees. He dismisses the death cross as largely meaningless:

“Empirically, it’s total nonsense. Often, it’s a great buying opportunity.”

Butterfill’s research reveals that one month after a Bitcoin death cross, prices are only slightly lower on average (-3.2%). Three months out, they’re usually higher.

More Than Just Bitcoin

Interestingly, Bitcoin isn’t alone in showing weakness. Major indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are also flirting with their own death crosses. Tech giants — including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet — are either there or close.

This could be more than a crypto issue. It may be the early stages of a broader market reset.

Historically, Bitcoin has moved in tandem with risk-on assets like tech stocks. If Wall Street suffers, so does crypto — unless Bitcoin finally embraces its role as digital gold and breaks the correlation.

So, What’s Next?

Right now, Bitcoin sits at a critical crossroads. Bulls and bears are clashing over whether this death cross marks the beginning of a deeper crash or just another fakeout.

With macro headwinds, technical warnings, and mixed opinions, traders should be cautious. Whether you’re buying the dip or bracing for a correction, this is no time for blind moves. The market is watching — and the trap, if there is one, has already been set.

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Quiz: Answer the following questions in 2-3 sentences each.

What is a Bitcoin death cross?
Why is the April 6 death cross significant?
How many Bitcoin death crosses have there been?
What’s the key difference between bear market crosses and other death crosses?
What does the realised cap vs market cap data tell us?
Who believes the current death cross is a setup for a rally?
What is James Butterfill’s take on death crosses?
How has Bitcoin historically performed after a death cross?
Why are macroeconomic factors important in this setup?
Could Bitcoin decouple from traditional markets? Why or why not?

Quiz Answer Key:

It’s a technical signal where the 50-day MA falls below the 200-day MA, often seen as bearish.
It occurred during market uncertainty, raising concerns about a prolonged decline.
Bitcoin has seen 11 death crosses, including the current one.
Bear market crosses last longer and lead to deeper losses than short-term ones.
It suggests that money is entering the market, but prices aren’t rising — a bearish sign.
Mister Crypto believes the current setup is a trap for bears and could lead to a rally.
He views it as meaningless and often a buying opportunity.
Prices are usually slightly lower after one month but often rise after three months.
Because equity markets and crypto often move together, especially during downturns.
Possibly, if Bitcoin fully adopts its role as digital gold and detaches from tech stock trends.

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